Editor November 19th, The candidates Disillusion with the Bachelet years is reflected in a variety of factors, not least the proliferation of candidates. The presidential candidates can be divided into three groups based on the likelihood of their reaching the decisive second round: 1.
No-hopers Last but not least, there are candidates with no chance whatsoever of reaching the second round. Who is going to win? The bigger questions Even if we see the polls as reliable — no longer self-evident, as elections the world over have shown of late — the question of who will win is not the most important. There are three fundamental questions with greater significance for the future: How will participation evolve in terms of socio-demographic profile and what variables will mobilise whose participation?
Will a new configuration emerge with the aim of reforming the Chilean political system or will the status quo be strengthened? About the author Editor. All articles are posted by the editor. For author details please see individual posts. Leave a Reply Cancel reply Your email address will not be published. Related Posts Democracy. The end of colonialism in Puerto Rico? Some critics of French policy toward Russia have questioned France's commitment to sustaining sanctions against Moscow.
In particular, they cite a perceived reluctance to further exacerbate tensions with Russia and harm French and European business interests. Although Macron has criticized Russian actions, he at times has also expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of EU sanctions on Russia. Continued concerns about Russian actions in Ukraine and elsewhere and concerns about possible Russian interference in the French election potentially could change the candidates' views on Russia See text box on "Alleged Russian Interference in French Politics and the Presidential Election," below.
In recent months, some French political leaders have grown increasingly concerned about France's vulnerability to possible Russian efforts to influence the presidential election. On February 13, , Emmanuel Macron's campaign publicly accused Russia and its state-owned media of hacking Macron's party's electronic infrastructure and disseminating "fake news" aimed at undermining Macron's candidacy.
Previously, the Socialist Party's security chief in parliament, Sebastien Pietrasanta, warned that the presidential campaign is at high risk of being hacked and noted that campaign staff have limited training in how to stop cyberattacks. Le Pen and the National Front have received attention both for pro-Russia views and for receiving funding from Russian banks.
The loans reportedly were used to fund regional election campaigns. The National Front's efforts to secure additional financial support from First Czech failed in , when Russia's Central Bank revoked the lender's license.
National Front leaders have not denied seeking funding from Russian banks. Nonetheless, the loans have drawn significant attention, not least due to Marine Le Pen's pro-Russia views. According to a Le Pen aide, the two leaders discussed international affairs and counterterrorism issues.
The aide reportedly said that Putin wished Le Pen good luck in the election. France, as one of Europe's most globally engaged and militarily capable countries, is an important U. In recent years, U. According to some analysts, U. About 1, French troops currently are participating in the mission, including by carrying out air strikes in both Iraq and Syria.
France and Germany share the U. Although Macron has not advocated a significant change in France's relations with the United States, he has expressed unease about the direction of U. In particular, he has taken issue with President Trump's criticisms of the EU and with his efforts to drastically curb migration to the United States from certain countries.
Macron has also stressed his belief in the importance of the EU and other multilateral institutions and in upholding international humanitarian law, including with respect to granting asylum to refugees. Le Pen was the only French presidential candidate who enthusiastically welcomed President Trump's election, which she portrayed as a validation of her nationalist approach.
However, some observers note that her support of Trump also could be a political liability given the U. President's apparent unpopularity among French voters. Despite potential disagreements between the next French president and President Trump, most analysts suggest that the U. However, most analysts expect that France would maintain a strong military and continue to be an active participant in NATO operations as it was during much of the more than 40 years it spent outside the NATO command structure.
Some observers also have noted that each of the leading presidential candidates, and particularly Le Pen, has at various times advocated improved French and EU ties with Moscow. Depending on the future direction of U. If Le Pen were to win the election and succeed in withdrawing from or radically restructuring France's relations with the EU, the decision could have a major impact on U.
Most important, such a decision could alter the structure of the EU significantly and ultimately could decrease the bloc's importance to the United States. A diminished EU could prompt a rethinking of more than 70 years of U.
This rethinking, in turn, could lead to a shift in U. How the Trump Administration would react to such changes is unclear. President Trump has praised the United Kingdom's decision to leave the EU and at times has expressed a preference to deal with national governments in Europe bilaterally.
On other occasions, he has expressed support for the EU. Many Members of Congress have expressed support for close U. These Members of Congress may have an interest in maintaining continuity in U.
The same could hold true with respect to France's membership in the EU. More broadly, an election outcome that results in significant changes to France's domestic and global policy outlook could have implications for the way the country manages its relations with the United States. From this perspective, Members of Congress could seek to emphasize the importance of stability in the bilateral relationship.
In contrast, those critical of the current state of the U. Poll data in this section are taken from the Financial Times ' regularly updated survey of French opinion polls, accessed on April 27, France has a bicameral parliament, composed of the member National Assembly lower house and the member Senate upper house.
All 42 women who registered were disqualified. In , people registered, but only eight men 1. All 30 female candidates, who registered [ 5 ], were disqualified. In addition, a number of former and serving MPs and ministers, who registered in this and previous presidential elections, were all disqualified. The six approved candidates all men are: 1 Hassan Rouhani 2 Ebrahim Ra'eesi 3 Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf 4 Es'haq Jahangiri 5 Mostafa Mir-Salim 6 Mostafa Hashemi Taba None of the six is critical of the Iranian state's structure and overall policies and all of them have held various positions at the highest levels of the country's political system.
The two frontrunners are Rouhani and Ra'eesi. Hassan Rouhani , 68, the incumbent president, has held numerous other high-ranking positions prior to the beginning of his first term as president in Past positions held include: five-term Member of Parliament from to ; member of the Assembly of Experts since [ 6 ]; member of Expediency Discernment Council since ; and, since , member and secretary of the National Supreme Security Council NSSC and now its chair.
First, the power struggle within the establishment in Iran has discouraged western investors. Second, investors have been hesitant to do business in Iran for fear of possible US sanctions. Rouhani has been described as a former hard-liner who has moved toward 'moderation' and found backing among the 'reformist' groups, in addition to former President Khatami.
Ebrahim Ra'eesi , 56, a cleric politically close to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his disciple for 14 years, was appointed by the Supreme Leader to head a very wealthy and powerful foundation in Khorassan province in early The foundation does not pay any taxes and Mr.
Ra'eesi is accountable only to Khamenei. He has held various judicial positions since his early 20s. Ra'eesi is known as a hard-liner, openly backed by hardl-ine clerical figures and organisations, hard-line newspapers, and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps IRGC.
Even some members of the Guardian Council of the Constitution, who must be neutral under the law, take part in his rallies. Many cohorts of former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are involved in his campaign.
Although the Supreme Leader has not, and will not publicly take sides, the line-up of Mr. Ra'eesi's backers and their public pronouncements point to the Supreme Leader's preference. This is particularly significant as Mr.
Ra'eesi has been mentioned as a favourite to succeed the year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is rumoured to be ill. What he wants:. In depth: Emmanuel Macron's meteoric rise. But his campaign was rocked by allegations that his wife and two children improperly received public funds. Initially he said he would step aside if he was placed under formal investigation, but never did. He seized the limelight with his razor-sharp wit during televised debates and impressed the public with his hi-tech use of holograms, projecting his image to rallies in six cities simultaneously.
Benoit Hamon , 49, was the Socialist Party's candidate. He is a left-wing rebel within the mainstream, who took the party's candidacy away from a former prime minister. Jacques Cheminade, 75, ex-civil servant in economy ministry sought to ditch the EU and abandon the euro.
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Debout La France Stand Up France , 55, Gaullist: wanted to leave the euro and scrap the EU, higher ethical standards for elected officials, focus on the fight against jihadist terrorism.
Claims he received texts from the Fillon campaign urging him to withdraw his candidacy.
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